NIESR warns UK recovery weakest since First World War

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has warned the UK faces the weakest economic recovery since the First World War, as GDP remains well below its pre-recession high.

NIESR estimates output grew by 0.5% in the three months ending in September after growth of 0.4% in the three months ending to August.

GDP growth is still 4% lower than its pre-recession peak, suggesting the recovery will be the weakest of any since the end of the First World War, the research house said.

However, the UK economy can still not be classed as in recession and can be better described as in depression, it added.

The National Institute interprets the term "recession" to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while "depression" is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak.

Unless output turns down again, the recession is now over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time, stated NIESR.

NIESR acknowledged that their three month projections have a likely tracking error of 0.1 to 0.2%.