SuMi Trust's Kimura: The likelihood of a global recession is increasing

In Asia, there is a tradition of naming the year after one of the 12 animals of the Chinese zodiac - 2016 is the year of the monkey.

Noisy and volatile, 2016 has started just like its animal namesake for Asian markets, with lots of activity coming from the Middle East and North Korea. Following the announcement of the success of North Korea's nuclear test, the yen-dollar rate headed to 117, reflecting increased geopolitical risk in the region. With the possibility that geopolitical risk will remain elevated for months to come, the yen-dollar is expected to stay below 120, the same level as at the end of 2015. After three years of a weak yen, earnings growth of Japanese exporters should begin to moderate. Althoug...